Last weekend saw an historic federal election victory for the Australian Labor Party (ALP), with the Prime Minister, the Hon Anthony Albanese MP, leading his party to its best ever election performance.
In the weeks and days leading up to the election, many pollsters and political commentators predicted a closer election, and even one that could take days to determine a winner.
However, 27 minutes after the Western Australian polls closed, the ABC’s Election Analyst Antony Green declared victory for the ALP, with a predicted increased majority.
The size of the election victory also saw the Federal Opposition Leader, the Hon Peter Dutton, suffer defeat in his Queensland electorate of Dickson.
Join us as Nexus APAC examines the election outcome and its implications for the future of Australian politics.
Current State of the House of Representatives
As at 9 May, the ALP currently holds 91 seats in the House of Representatives and is well-positioned to win two more out of the electorates of Bullwinkel (WA), Calwell (Victoria), Bean (ACT), and Longman (Queensland).
This would represent a net gain of 16 seats compared to the 2022 Election, with 13 to 14 seats taken from the Coalition and 3 from the Australian Greens.
The Coalition currently holds 40 seats in the House of Representatives, with six other contests (Bradfield (NSW), Kooyong (Victoria), Monash (Victoria), Flinders (Victoria), Longman (Queensland) and Bullwinkel (WA)) still too close to call.
They are currently ahead in four of these contests: Bradfield, Monash, Flinders, and Longman. If they hold these leads, the Coalition will finish with 44 seats, representing a loss of 14 seats compared to the 2022 Election.
The Greens have lost 3 out of their 4 lower house seats (Brisbane (Queensland), Griffith (Queensland) and Melbourne (Victoria)).
Key Takeaways
- The ALP recorded a primary vote national average swing of +2.1 percent.
- The Coalition recorded a primary vote national average swing of -3.4 percent.
- The Coalition will have its lowest number of seats in the House of Representatives since its first federal election in 1946.
- This is the first election that a leader of the opposition has lost their seat.
- The Greens Leader, Mr Adam Bandt, also lost his seat of Melbourne.
- Mr Albanese became the first Prime Minister to win back-to-back elections since the Hon John Howard, and the first ALP Prime Minister to do it since the Hon Bob Hawke.
What Happens Next?
The Albanese-led ALP Government will enter the 48th Parliament in a strong position with a majority in the House of Representatives and 8 seats shy of a majority in the Senate.
This means that in the Senate the ALP will still need to negotiate with the Greens, the Senate crossbench or the Coalition to pass legislation.
Following the election, Mr Albanese said in a press conference, if the Senate were to oppose cost-of-living legislation, as it did in Labor’s first term, the Australian people would not view this favourably.
He also pointed out that the Greens’ and the Coalition’s housing spokespersons had lost their seats in the recent election. He stated that this was because both parties had consistently voted against the ALP’s housing policies such as the Help to Buy scheme and the build-to-rent bill.
Mr Albanese’s appeal to the public is likely to increase scrutiny of Senate decisions and boost the ALP’s chances of passing legislation on cost-of-living relief and housing accessibility.
The Prime Minister has signalled that the first piece of legislation that he will bring before the new parliament will be Labor’s election promise to cut student debt by 20%.
Liberal Party Moving Forward
Following Mr Dutton’s loss to the ALP in his Queensland electorate of Dickson, the Liberal Party will begin the process of electing a new leader.
So far, two candidates have publicly declared their interest:
- The Hon Sussan Ley MP: Member for Farrer (NSW), former Shadow Minister for Industry, Skills and Training, and former Deputy Leader of the Opposition
- The Hon Angus Taylor MP: Member for Hume (NSW), former Shadow Treasurer
As the Liberal Party reflects on a historic loss, there will be different explanations given across the party.
There will no doubt be an assessment and repositioning of the party to best capture voters that have currently turned away.
The New Albanese Ministry
Mr Albanese called a caucus meeting on 9 May to discuss ministerial appointments, with elements of the party putting forward their preferred candidates for promotion or re-appointment.
Prominent figures from the Labor Party are calling for a rebalancing of ministerial positions depending on state and factional representation.
It is currently reported that the Hon Ed Husic MP (former Minister for Industry and Science) and the Hon Mark Dreyfus MP (former Attorney-General), will not be reappointed to their respective ministerial positions.
While the general makeup of the frontbench can be anticipated, portfolio assignments are ultimately at Mr Albanese’s discretion and will be announced on Tuesday, 13 May.
Join us next week as we analyse Mr Albanese’s ministerial selections and provide insights into what the next three years may look like for the Liberal and National Party.
Photo credit: Heute.at
