And just like that, we’ve reached the end with most pundits and pollsters predicting a return of the current government.
As anticipation grows over who will actually be crowned Prime Minister, how the new Cabinet will shape up, and when the 48th Parliament will hold its first Question Time, it’s worth pausing to reflect. Let’s take a moment to look back on the past five weeks and reminisce on the journey.
With one sleep left until vote counting begins, join us at Nexus APAC to review the campaign and demystify next few months, from the swearing in of the Ministry to the first sitting of the 48th Parliament.
Labor
The Australian Labor Party (ALP), led by Prime Minister the Hon Anthony Albanese MP, has run a campaign that leans on its traditional strengths in health and education, while placing a strong emphasis on the key voter concerns of housing and the cost of living.
Mr Albanese has travelled widely, visiting an average of 13 electorates per week. We have compiled all electorates visited by Mr Albanese until 1 May. See if you can spot your electorate below:
| State/Territory |
Electorates |
| New South Wales | Grayndler x2 (ALP, 17.3%), Sydney x2 (ALP, 16.5%), McMahon (ALP, 10.5%), Warringah (IND, 9.4%), Eden-Monaro (ALP, 6.1%), Reid (ALP, 5.2%), Hunter (ALP, 4.8%), Paramatta (ALP, 3.7%), Paterson (ALP, 2.6%), Banks (LIB, 2.6%), Robertson (ALP, 2.2%), Fowler x2 (IND, 1.1%), Gilmore (ALP, 0.2%), and Bennelong x2 (ALP, -0.04%).
Total: 18 |
| Victoria | Fraser (ALP, 16.6%), Scullin (ALP, 15.4%), Lalor (ALP, 12.8%), Macnamara (ALP, 12.2%), Corangamite (ALP, 7.8%), Cooper (ALP, 7.8%), Melbourne (GRN, 6.5%), Wills (ALP, 4.6%), McEwen (ALP, 3.8%), Chisholm (ALP, 3.3%), Menzies (ALP, 0.4%), and Deakin x2 (LIB, 0.02%).
Total: 13 |
| Queensland | Maranao (NAT, 22.1%), Griffith x2 (GRN, 10.5%), Hinkler (LNP, 10.1%), Moreton (ALP, 9.1%), Brisbane (GRN, 3.7%), Bonner (LNP, 3.4%), Leichhardt (LNP, 3.4%), and Dickson (LNP, 1.7%).
Total: 9 |
| Western Australia | Fremantle (ALP, 16.9%), Perth x2 (ALP, 14.4%), Hasluck x2 (ALP, 10%), Swan (ALP, 9.4%), O’Connor (LIB, 6.7%), Durack (LIB, 4.7%), Bullwinkel x2 (ALP, 3.3%), Tangney x2 (ALP, 2.8%), and Canning (LIB, 1.2%).
Total: 13 |
| Tasmania | Braddon (LIB, 8.0%), Bass (LIB, 1.4%), and Lyons x2 (ALP, 0.9%).
Total: 4 |
| South Australia | Adelaide x2 (ALP, 11.9%), Boothby (ALP, 3.3%), and Sturt (LIB, 0.5%).
Total: 4 |
| Australian Capital Territory | Canberra x3 (ALP, 12.2%).
Total: 3 |
| Northern Territory | Solomon (ALP, 8.4%).
Total: 1 |
It has been a busy campaign for Mr Albanese, with 65 electoral visits across 51 electorates. Out of the 51 unique electorates visited, around 62% are held by the ALP. This indicates a balanced strategy aimed at extending the ALP’s majority while defending against losses in marginal ALP seats.
This also suggests that the ALP is looking beyond the 2025 Federal Election, aiming to establish a buffer ahead of the 2028 Federal Election. This will provide the necessary space to implement long-term policy priorities such as Future Made in Australia.
Coalition
The Coalition, led by Opposition Leader the Hon Peter Dutton MP, has centred its campaign on the cost of living, while also highlighting issues such as housing, defence, crime, and energy.
The campaign’s core message is encapsulated in Mr Dutton’s repeated question to voters: “Are you better off now than you were three years ago?”
As with Mr Albanese, we summarised every electoral visit conducted by Mr Dutton until 1 May.
| State/Territory | Electorate |
| New South Wales | Sydney (ALP, 16.5%), Watson (ALP, 15.2%), McMahon x2 (ALP, 10.5%), McArthur (ALP, 9.8%), Calare (NAT, 9.7%), Warringah (IND, 9.4%), Wentworth (IND, 6.8%), Dobell (ALP, 6.6%), Shortland (ALP, 6%), Werriwa x2 (ALP, 5.3%), Reid (ALP, 5.2%), Parramatta (ALP, 3.7%), Mackellar (IND, 3.3%), Paterson x3 (ALP, 2.6%), Robertson (ALP, 2.2%), Fowler (IND, 1.1%), Gilmore (ALP, 0.2%), and Bennelong (ALP, -0.04%).
Total = 22 |
| Victoria | Calwell (ALP, 12.4%), Macnamara x2 (ALP, 12.2%), Gorton x2 (ALP, 10%), Hawke x2 (ALP, 7.6%), Dunkley x2 (ALP, 6.8%), Melbourne (GRN, 6.5%), Bruce (ALP, 5.3%), McEwen x3 (ALP, 3.8%), Aston x2 (ALP, 3.6%), Chisholm (ALP, 3.3%), and Kooyong (IND, 2.2%).
Total = 18 |
| Queensland | Maranoa (NAT, 22.1%), Herbert (LNP, 11.8%), Griffith (GRN, 10.5%), Moreton (ALP, 9.1%), Blair x2 (ALP, 5.2%), Brisbane x2 (GRN, 3.7%), Leichardt (LNP, 3.4%), Ryan (GRN, 2.6%), and Dickson x2 (LNP, 1.7%).
Total = 12 |
| Western Australia | Perth (ALP, 14.4%), Hasluck x2 (ALP, 10%), Swan x2 (ALP, 9.4%), Pearce (ALP, 8.8%), Forrest (LIB, 4.2%), Bullwinkel (ALP, 3.3%), Tangney x2 (ALP, 2.8%), and Curtin (IND, 1.3%).
Total = 11 |
| Tasmania | Clark (IND, 20.8%), Bass (LIB, 1.4%), and Lyons x3 (ALP, 0.9%).
Total = 5 |
| South Australia | Adelaide (ALP, 11.9%) and Sturt (LIB, 0.5%).
Total = 2 |
| Northern Territory | Solomon x2 (ALP, 8.4%).
Total = 2 |
| Australian Capital Territory |
Total = 0 |
Mr Dutton has also travelled widely during the course of his campaign, conducting 72 electoral visits across 52 electorates. Mr Dutton visited 14.4 electorates per week on average, slightly surpassing Mr Albanese’s 13 per week.
Of the 52 electorates visited, only 15% were held by the Coalition. This consistent trend underscores the challenge faced by the Coalition, which needs to gain 22 seats to form a majority government.
Additionally, Mr Dutton is the first Opposition Leader since Dr John Hewson AM in 1993 to neither visit Canberra nor address the National Press Club during the campaign—breaking a tradition that has held for 11 consecutive elections.
Anticipated timeline to new Ministry and the 48th Parliament
Now, campaigns aside, what happens after the election?
In the lead-up to polling day, the Nexus APAC team has been receiving a lot of questions about what happens next. How much time will the winning side take to swear in a new Ministry, or to summon the 48th Parliament?
Based on our analysis of historical data, the average length of time between a federal election and the swearing-in of a Ministry is 17.17 days. If applied to 2025, this would be around 20 May 2025.
However, this could be influenced by numerous factors. A new government (i.e. a Coalition win) is expected to take a shorter time, whereas a minority Albanese government is expected to take longer. Close margins result in a full recount by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) which can delay the outcome. In addition, pressing executive branch commitments may trigger an early swearing-in of the Ministry.
The average length of time between a federal election and the first day of a new parliament is 60.23 days. If applied to 2025, Parliament would be summoned around 2 July 2025. However this may be moved to avoid the scheduled parliamentary winter break.
Again, there are many factors which influence this timeframe. While a new / returning or minority / majority government does not play a major role here, the scope of proposed reforms, Machinery of Government (MoG) changes, and the occurrence of significant public holidays such as Christmas or Easter can influence the date parliament is summoned.
If you are interested in a detailed briefing, or support on your post-election advocacy or engagement strategy, you can connect with the Nexus APAC team here.
Photo credit: JJ Harrison
