State of the States

With the election window opening and campaigns in full swing, premiers across the country are aligning state and federal politics to push their party across the finish line.

This week, the Nexus APAC team investigated how each state and territory is gearing up for this year’s Federal Election.

New South Wales

NSW is currently governed by the Labor Minns Government, and comprises 25 ALP seats, 17 Coalition seats, and 4 IND seats federally. With the suburbs of NSW facing the brunt of the cost-of-living crisis, political pollsters are dubbing it “ground zero” in the “cost-of-living battleground.” The ongoing industrial relations dispute between the Transport Workers Union and the state government has only further angered the public.

In a press conference on 17 February, Premier Minns rejected the idea that he would accept the union’s demands, stating that it “might be in the interests of the Labor Party, but it would not be in the interests of the people of NSW.”

In a state where the ALP may lose up to 9 seats, the incumbent Albanese Labor Government may bear the brunt of this state-based issue at the upcoming Federal Election.

Queensland

Queensland is currently governed by the Liberal National Crisafulli Government, which took office following the October 2024 state election. The state comprises 21 LNP seats, 5 ALP seats, and 4 minor/others federally. In the state election, Labor lost seats in places like Maryborough, Mackay and Rockhampton, in some cases for the first time in over a century.

Premier Crisafulli has wasted no time in seizing the opportunity presented by the upcoming Federal Election, stating that he intends to  “use the opportunity with a federal election to get what my state needs.” This has materialised in his outward opposition to the Coalition’s nuclear power policy. Premier Crisafulli has instead thrown his support behind the Albanese Government’s renewables plan in conjunction with existing Queensland coal-fired power stations to bring down the cost of energy.

Victoria

Victoria is currently governed by the Labor Allan Government, comprising 24 ALP seats, 10 Coalition seats, and 4 other seats federally. Despite the ALP narrowly hanging onto their seats, Victoria’s recent by-elections taught political watchers that the dissatisfaction with major parties is not limited to the ALP. When vote counting was complete, major parties finished with less than 30 percent of the first-preference vote.  This is cause for concern for the Albanese Government and Dutton’s Coalition as both parties desperately need wins in Victorian inner and outer suburbs to form government.

Premier Allan has recently announced an axing of over 6,000 state public servants. The exact location of these job cuts is unknown. However, Premier Allan addressed the media, saying this will be done to limit job duplication and waste, with the extra funds being used to ease the cost-of-living crisis. If this decision is finalised prior to the Federal Election, and some results are tangible, it may be enough to halt the decline in confidence for the ALP federally. However, it would do little to immediately reverse the declining support for the Albanese Government within the former Labor bulwark.

South Australia

SA is currently governed by the Labor Malinauskas Government, comprising 6 ALP seats, 3 Liberal seats, and 1 Centre Alliance seat federally. Coming off two state by-elections, the SA Labor Party looks more potent than ever, becoming the first to win a by-election while in government in SA in 116 years. However, this may not necessarily be due to the growing support for the Australian Labor Party brand but rather the widespread support for Premier Malinauskas.

Premier Malinauskas has seen great success and popularity in SA through his policies of bringing entertainment to the state. The Premier has also supported the Albanese Government’s bid for clean energy and manufacturing with the recent announcement of investment to save Whyalla Steelworks and support its shift towards  ‘green steel’ manufacturing. If the Premier can ‘lend’ some of his popularity to his federal Labor colleagues, the ALP may be able to pick up a seat or two.

Western Australia

WA is currently governed by the Labor Cook Government, comprising 10 ALP seats, 5 Liberal seats, and 1 IND seat federally. Whilst the nation is gearing up for a federal election, WA is also readying for a state election. Polling experts are predicting an easy win for the Cook Government. However, many believe this will not aid Prime Minister Albanese in his bid for a second term. Only 35 percent of WA voters said the Albanese Government deserved to be re-elected, while 50 percent said it was “time to give someone else a go”.

Despite this disconnect, Premier Cook is following the footsteps of his federal leader as he has announced his “Made in WA” plan to diversify the state’s economy. This announcement also included a residential battery scheme offering households between $5,000 and $7,500 to purchase batteries linked to solar panels. “Under WA Labor, the residential battery revolution will begin,” he said. This could be viewed as a ‘trial run’ for the ALP ahead of the Federal Election.  The Albanese Labor Government has adhered to a ‘Future Made in Australia’ approach to resources and infrastructure for over a year, yet its popularity is slipping in the polls.

Tasmania

Tasmania is currently governed by the Liberal Rockliff Government, comprising 2 ALP seats, 2 Liberal seats, and 1 IND seat federally. With the upcoming election and majority government hanging by a knife edge, Tasmania is more important than ever. Prime Minister Albanese has visited the island 20 times in the last few months alone. This shows that his party has learnt from neglecting Tasmania in the 2019 election. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has kept his grip firm in Hobart, promising certainty for salmon farming operations and an expanded greater southeast irrigation scheme.

Premier Rockliff has thrown his support behind Opposition Leader Dutton. However, he has remained relatively central by praising Mr Albanese and their working relationship, stating, “Anthony and I together have delivered a great deal for Tasmania in a range of areas.” This indicates that the Premier wishes to maintain positive relationships across the aisle, irrespective of the outcome of the next election.

Northern Territory

The NT is currently governed by the Country Liberal Finocchiaro Government, comprising 2 ALP seats federally. The NT is cooling down after a change in government following the NT election in 2024. The election saw a 16.5 percent swing towards the Country Liberal Party, resulting in a “landslide victory.” The Country Liberal Party garnered Territory-wide support for their promise to lower the age of criminal liability to 10 and to crack down on unchecked youth crime. Experts predict this shift in public opinion will favour the federal Coalition due to Mr Dutton’s past as a Queensland Police Officer, as well as his recent pledges to enact harsher knife laws and to work with states and territories to crack down on street violence.

Australian Capital Territory

The ACT is currently governed by the Labor Barr Government, comprising 3 ALP seats federally. Labor formed a minority government of 10 members after the Greens moved to the crossbench and dissolved the coalition that had been in place since 2012. Nonetheless, the ACT Labor has defied the anti-incumbency trend, marking over a quarter of a century in power. Despite remaining in power, the ACT was hit with an “independent wave,” reflecting the nationwide trend. If either party is to form a majority, they must fight off the independent movement and direct attention towards the ‘teal’ and independent seats.

As the election draws nearer, Nexus APAC will continue to provide detailed coverage and analysis of the key policies, strategies, and developments from both sides. Stay tuned for further insights as we follow this pivotal election year and the campaigns shaping Australia’s future.