With the 2025 Federal Election looming, political ‘watchers’ are asking themselves one crucial question: Who will the independent candidates support: the Australian Labor Party or the Coalition?
Following the emerging trend from the 2022 election, if more independent or ‘teal’ candidates win federal seats in 2025, the crossbench would have unprecedented influence over government formation.
Although it might appear that the independents will align themselves with Labor or the Greens due to their left-leaning campaign policies and previous attacks on Coalition seats, the reality is more complex. Several factors will collectively (and sometimes conflictingly) influence how the independents vote in a hung parliament.
Candidates and their Priorities
Ms Caz Heise is the Independent candidate for Cowper, who won 47.7% of the two-party preferred vote in the 2022 Federal Election against the sitting Nationals MP. She needs a 2.4% swing to win this year. Her campaign focuses on better mobile coverage and regional healthcare, including aged care, disability care, and mental health. Ms Heise may negotiate with Labor for improved health infrastructure or consider a deal with the Coalition if she prioritises regional policies.
In the 2022 election, Ms Nicolette Boele came within 4% of winning the Coalition seat of Bradfield. Following an electoral redistribution, the notional margin has narrowed to 2.5%. Her main policy focuses are housing affordability and availability, and she may align with a party that prioritises these issues. Despite a conservative voter base, her campaign emphasises change and genuine local representation, potentially shifting the electorate’s vote away from the Liberal Party.
Ms Kate Hook is running for the Calare seat in regional New South Wales, receiving 40.3% of the last election’s two-party vote. This year, she faces the current Independent MP, the Hon Andrew Gee MP, and the new Nationals candidate, the Hon Sam Farraway. Her priorities are the cost of living crisis, housing affordability, and clean energy. As a business owner who provides renewable energy and opposes a proposed nuclear plant in Lithgow, she will likely support the Labor Party in a hung parliament.
Bean in the ACT is the only Labor-held seat that a Climate 200-backed independent candidate is contesting. Ms Jessie Price, a founder of the Voices of Bean, is also backed by ProACT in this election, the independent community movement that endorsed and supported ACT Senator David Pocock. With a highly Labor-focused voting base and an interest in the cost of living crisis, housing affordability and health care, Ms Price is likely to negotiate with Labor and the Greens if her vote is needed to form government.
Ms Claire Ferres Miles could help Labor to form government after the next election. Running in Casey against Liberal MP Mr Aaron Violi, she has a 1.4% margin. As former CEO of Sustainability Victoria, Ms Ferres Miles focuses on energy and communications in her campaign. She holds an anti-nuclear stance and emphasises natural disaster resilience. On the other hand, the cost of living and housing crises are a rising concern in her community. As such, she may support the major party that delivers the best outcome in these areas.
Mr Alex Dyson is running as an independent for the Wannon seat in Victoria for the third time, having previously contested in 2019 and 2022. He aims to unseat the incumbent Liberal, the Hon Dan Tehan MP, and hopes for a hung parliament to empower independents. Mr Dyson plans to negotiate with the Coalition and Labor to secure support for cost of living relief, climate action, and improved healthcare and childcare for Wannon.
Dr Verity Cooper, a retired GP and the Independent candidate for Sturt, shares policy priorities with Labor and has a history with the South Australian Greens. While she may negotiate with these parties if elected, her criticism of the ‘political games’ played by all major parties suggests she might avoid deals altogether. Sturt, the sole Liberal-held seat in metropolitan Adelaide, is represented by Mr James Stevens MP with a 0.5% margin.
Dr Sue Chapman, a local surgeon, is running for the Forrest seat in Western Australia. A former member of the Western Australian Greens, she has previously voted for both Labor and the Liberal Party. Dr Chapman aims to balance critical infrastructure development with environmental conservation. Focusing on the cost of living and the housing crisis, she may be open to allying with either party. However, as the Liberal Party has held Forrest since the 1970s, her conservative voting community could influence her decisions.
Independent candidate Ms Francine Wiig is running against Mr Ted O’Brien MP for the seat of Fairfax, focusing on education, environmental protection, and the cost of living crisis. Her campaign reflects community frustration over being overlooked in this ‘safe’ Coalition seat. If her priorities are considered, she may align with her conservative voting base and negotiate with the Liberal Party.
Other Factors
The policy issues and values publicised during an independent’s election campaign are not the only factors to consider. Examining the actions of independents who successfully won seats in the 2022 election and have been participating in the Federal Government for the past four years gives further insight into how complex a hung parliament could become.
While most sitting independents have not publicly disclosed which party they would support in a hung parliament, their voting history may be an indicator. Ms Allegra Spender MP, for example, has voted more often in line with the Coalition than other independents. Dr Helen Haines MP also has a history of voting with the Coalition on policy issues during her time in Parliament.
An independent’s voting pattern in Parliament may also reflect the values and voting habits of the community they represent. Most independent candidates won seats from Coalition politicians in the last election, and this trend is likely to continue in 2025. If independents value true community representation in Parliament, they must consider their traditionally conservative voting base. Ms Rebekha Sharkie MP has claimed that voters within her seat will expect her to negotiate with the Coalition first if a majority government cannot be formed.
Other sitting independents have sworn off supporting either party entirely. Mr Andrew Wilkie MP has remained firm that he will not negotiate deals with either party to form government if there is a hung parliament. After his experience during the 2010 hung parliament, the Tasmanian Independent has warned other crossbench members that they could lose their significant voting agency and influence if they become chained into deals with the major parties.
While the question of which party the independents will support in a hung parliament is less than clear-cut, what is explicit is the profound impact a larger crossbench will have on Australian legislation after the 2025 election.
In her speech at the National Press Club earlier this week, Ms Zoe Daniel MP made the vital role of current and former independent politicians in advocating for key initiatives abundantly clear. Independents have helped push legislation for carbon emissions reduction, reductions in HECS debt, and the restoration of single parent payments. They have also urged the Government to prioritise tax reform, address climate change, reduce gambling advertisements, combat violence against women, and improve political integrity.
As the election draws nearer, Nexus APAC will continue to provide detailed coverage and analysis of the key policies, strategies, and developments. Stay tuned for further insights as we follow this pivotal election year and the campaigns shaping Australia’s future.
Photo credit: Alex Proimos
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