Playing the Numbers

The game of politics can be similar to a game of poker, and requires a good understanding the numbers, the players, and what the dealer is yet to deal.

As Kenny Rogers said, you have to “know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em, know when to walk away, and know when to run.”

There is no better time for politicians to be using these lessons than in the current Australian political climate.

So, join us at Nexus APAC as we uncover the key statistics that will shape Australian politics in the next three years, and find out who will be holding, and who will be folding.

Key Metrics for the Treasurer

Treasurer, the Hon Dr Jim Chalmers MP, has announced that the Australian Labor Party’s (ALP) focus for the coming years is increasing productivity, and reducing the budget deficit.

The Treasurer has been tasked with achieving this while Australia faces its highest forecasted gross debt since World War II. According to the 2024-25 Budget, gross debt is expected to reach $940 billion, or 33.7% of GDP, in 2024-25, with the forward estimates forecasting gross debt to reach over $1.2 trillion, or 36.8% of GDP, in 2028-29.

Below are some of the other key economic indicators influencing the Treasurers’ every move:

• The ASX200 has recovered significantly following the -10.5% decrease (YTD) following the Trump Administration’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements. Currently, the ASX200 has increased 1.91% (YTD) and is relatively stable, indicating sustained confidence in the Australian Market despite international uncertainties.
• S&P Global issued a warning to the Government that if spending continued unchecked, Australia would be at risk of losing its triple A credit rating. This comes as the US was downgraded to double A only last week. If Australia were to be downgraded, this would increase the servicing costs of existing debt and any future debt. This would likely result in a decline in consumer confidence in the Australian market.
• Australia’s underlying inflation is measure of inflation that removes one-off external shocks such as global commodity price rises and falls, and short-term policy changes. In March it fell to within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2-3% for the first time since the December quarter of 2021, sitting at 2.9%.
• The unemployment rate remains at 4.1% despite a drop in interest rates.
• The RBA announced another cut in interest rates to 3.85%, making the yearly change -0.5%.

In the current economic climate, key indicators such as inflation, unemployment, and interest rates support the Treasurer’s stance on reducing costs and minimising the need for artificial stimulus to drive growth.

However, ongoing international pressures and a substantial national debt may  prompt the Government to adopt more stringent budgetary measures, restricting expenditure to only the most urgent and essential needs.

Key Metrics for the Liberal Party

Following their loss at the 2025 Federal Election, Opposition Leader the Hon Sussan Ley MP will be tasked with identifying the shortfalls and lessons to address before the 2028 election. Below are three significant stats that Ms Ley will be considering:

• The Liberal Party only hold 2/43 Inner-Metropolitan seats and 7/45 Outer-Metropolitan seats, reflecting the sentiment that the Liberal Party failed to appeal to their base and urban voters.
• Representation is another key metric. Among candidates for the House of Representatives, 33% of Liberal candidates were women, compared to 31% for the Nationals and just 16% for the Liberal National Party. These disparities are echoed in the makeup of sitting MPs, with women comprising only 21% of Liberal MPs and 20% of Nationals MPs. In contrast, 54% of ALP candidates and 53% of current ALP MPs are women.
• For the duration that the Coalition remains split, the size of the Crossbench will rival that of the Liberal Opposition.

Ms Ley is expected to focus on strengthening the Liberal Party’s presence in its traditional strongholds, some of which have recently shifted towards teal candidates.

In her early press interviews, she has highlighted the importance of respecting, reflecting, and representing the views of all Australians. This messaging may signal a move toward more centrist positions on certain issues, including climate policy.

There has also been public discussion around how the party can better engage with female voters, particularly in light of recent debates over workplace policies such as remote work.

Some voices have suggested considering measures like gender quotas, similar to those adopted by the ALP, to support greater representation.

Key Considerations for the Labor Party

Although the ALP now has unprecedented representation in Parliament, it also means that many internal views and personalities will need to be carefully managed.

The Prime Minister, the Hon Anthony Albanese MP, will be tasked with finding consensus and unity in a large Labor Caucus.

Due to a significant increase in the number of Labor seats, the balance of factional representation has shifted to the left, potentially paving the way for more progressive reforms.

State of the Nation

• 2026 State Elections: In 2026, there will be elections in Victoria and South Australia. Although Labor is predicted to have a safe return to government in South Australia, the Victorian Labor Party is facing a significant challenge, with opinion polling since September 2024 predicting a Liberal-National Coalition victory. This comes as the Victorian Labor Government seeks a fourth term.
• The National Balance: As for the States and Territories – the Liberal Party holds Tasmania, the Liberal National Party holds Queensland, and the Country Liberal Party holds the Northern Territory. The Labor Party holds the other five states and territories.

Photo credit: Advantus Media Inc. and QuoteInspector.com