Week 3 of the federal election campaign kicked off with both major parties’ official campaign launches on Sunday, 13 April.
Although the campaigns technically began when the Prime Minister, the Hon Anthony Albanese MP, asked the Governor-General to dissolve Parliament on 28 March, from the point of the official campaign launch, political parties can no longer use taxpayer money for costs such as flights, and must rely on external donations. However, advertising is always funded by external donations only.
Now, enough of the technicality and nitty-gritty of Australian politics. Join the Nexus APAC team as we discuss what has transpired over the last week of federal election campaigning.
Labor Campaign Trail
On Sunday, 13 April, the Albanese Government launched their official campaign in Perth. This featured Labor legends such as the Hon Julia Gillard, and a UFC-style walkout entrance for Mr Albanese to the song “Sounds of Then” by Ganggajang.
The Labor campaign has been busy shoring up Labor seats while sprinkling in the occasional marginal Coalition seat. From Friday, 11 April to Wednesday, 16 April, Mr Albanese visited the following electorates:
Scullin VIC (ALP, 15.4%), Cooper VIC (ALP, 7.8%), Deakin VIC (LIB, 0.02%), Adelaide SA (ALP, 11.9%), Perth WA (ALP, 14.4%), Swan WA (ALP, 9.4%), Durack WA (LIB, 4.7%), Tangney WA (ALP, 2.8%), Lyons TAS (ALP, 0.9%), and Solomon NT (ALP, 8.4%).
Labor has remained firm when announcing policies, sticking to measures that have worked and been tried and tested for public approval. The most significant announcements over the last week include:
- $10 billion to build 100,000 new homes over eight years, exclusively for sale to first home buyers.
- Giving first home buyers access to 5% deposits.
- $2.4 billion for an optional $1000 instant tax deduction for work-related expenses.
- $60 million for an aged care home in the Northern Territory.
- $60 million to expand Perth’s Swan River ferry network.
- $1 million for women’s sports facilities at Kippax in Canberra.
The Albanese Government is continuing to address the cost of living and healthcare in its policy announcements. With a lead in the polls, the ALP is likely to avoid major policy shifts or potentially controversial stances. While this approach may appear cautious, it reflects a strategy focused on maintaining stability and consistency heading into the election.
Coalition Campaign Trail
The third week of the campaign trail has seen the Opposition Leader, the Hon Peter Dutton MP, engage in an ‘all-out offensive’ when selecting which seats to visit. All fourteen seats visited this week reside outside of the Coalition, reflecting sentiment that if they are to win, a meaningful change in voting behaviour needs to happen now. Below are the electorates visited by the Coalition between Friday, 11 April and Wednesday, 16 April.
Macnamara VIC (ALP, 12.2%), Gorton VIC (ALP, 10%), Hawke VIC (ALP, 7.6%), Melbourne VIC (GRN, 6.5%), McEwen VIC (ALP, 3.8%), Werriwa NSW (ALP, 5.3%), Griffith QLD (GRN, 10.5%), Brisbane QLD (GRN, 3.7%), Ryan QLD (GRN, 2.6%), Hasluck WA (ALP, 10%) Swan WA (ALP, 9.4%), Bullwinkel WA (ALP, 3.3%), Tangney WA (ALP, 2.8%), and Curtin WA (IND, 1.3%).
Similarly, with their seat targeting, the Coalition have announced significant policy promises to sway Australian voters. These policies are:
- $10 billion for a $1200 tax cut for over 10 million middle income earners.
- $19.5 million to Food Bank Brisbane.
- $6 million to the Alannah and Madeline Foundation to improve online safety for kids.
- Allowing first home buyers to access up to $50,000 of their superannuation to go towards a deposit.
- Allowing first home buyers to claim mortgage interest payments on their taxes for new build homes on the first $650,000 of their mortgage.
- Removing financial penalties for manufacturers that breach vehicle efficiency standards.
- Abolishing the ALP’s fee-free TAFE scheme.
These policies again reflect a campaign targeted at swing voters living in the ‘mortgage belts’ across Australia. The Coalition has confirmed that it will cut one ALP policy and water down another if re-elected.
Polling
If you’re keeping up with the media, you would have stumbled upon countless articles referring to the ‘polls.’ So, what are they? Political polls are surveys used to gauge public opinion on political issues, candidates, parties, or policies. The most common form of polling, especially before an election, is the two-party preferred vote.
Heading into 2025, the Coalition was firmly ahead on every polling agency’s survey. However, since Cyclone Alfred, the ALP has chipped away at the Coalition’s lead and reversed the Coalition’s swing.
Below is the polling data from the four leading agencies since the leaders debate on 8 April.
- YouGov: 52.5% ALP / 47.5% LNP
- Newspoll: 52% ALP / 48% LNP
- Roy Morgan: 54.5% ALP / 45.5% LNP
- Resolve Strategic: 53.5% ALP / 46.5% LNP
At the 2022 Federal Election, the ALP formed a majority in the House of Representatives with 52.1% of the two-party preferred vote.
As it currently stands, the polling data from three out of four agencies indicate that the ALP will return to Government, with a slight increase in their majority.
However, polls are not gospel and have, at times, completely missed the mark. Most notably was the 2019 Federal Election. The Shorten-led ALP was regarded as a ‘sure thing’ and was ahead in every poll for two years leading up to the Federal Election. However, on 18 May 2019, the Morrison-led Coalition received over 51% of the two-party preferred vote, resulting in the Coalition forming government.
Although it’s fun to view the polls, they must be treated with caution. The only polls that matter are the ones that close on 3 May.
If you enjoyed this week’s Election Insight, make sure to tune in next week for the latest updates on the major parties’ election campaigns.
Photo credit: Free Malaysia Today (FMT)
