Federal Campaigns Week 2: Seats to Watch

As the second week of the federal campaigns wraps up, there’s no better place to escape the media frenzy and get an update on things that actually mattered over the week.

If you didn’t know Australia was in an election last week, you definitely know now.

This week has certainly been a memorable one, with the Leader of the Australian Greens, Mr Adam Bandt MP, parading around a giant toothbrush, Prime Minister the Hon Anthony Albanese MP stumbling off a stage, and Opposition Leader the Hon Peter Dutton MP nailing a cameraman in the head with an AFL ball.

Labor Campaign Trail

Despite increasing his lead in the polls, Mr Albanese and the Labor campaign machine show no signs of easing off the accelerator. In the second week of the campaign, Mr Albanese visited the following electorates from Friday, 4 April, to Thursday, 10 April.

Fraser VIC (ALP, 16.6%), Wills VIC (ALP, 4.6%), McEwen VIC (ALP, 3.8%), Fowler NSW (IND, 1.1%), Grayndler NSW (ALP, 17.3%), Paramatta NSW (ALP, 3.7%), McMahon NSW (ALP 10.5%), Sydney (ALP, 16.5), Maranao QLD (NAT, 22.1%), Griffith QLD (GRN, 10.5%), and Leichardt QLD (LNP, 3.4%).

It’s no surprise that the Labor campaign trail mimics last week, focusing on maintaining Labor seats whilst sprinkling in a few marginal seats seen as winnable. We will have more on these key seats further down in the article. For now, let’s have a look at the notable promises made by the ALP over the last week:

• $2.3 billion pledge in subsidies for household solar batteries.
• $1 billion mental health commitment that includes:
  • $500 million for 20 Youth Specialist Care Centres for young people with complex needs.
  • $225 million for 31 new and upgraded Medicare Mental Health Centres.
  • More than $200 million for 58 new, upgraded or expanded headspace services.
  • $90 million for more than 1,200 training places for mental health professionals and peer workers.
• $245 million towards a new bridge over the Barron River on the Kennedy Highway, a key link connecting Cairns to the far north of Queensland.
• $120 million to deliver a birthing service at Rouse Hill Hospital, including birthing rooms, a maternity inpatient unit and additional staffing areas in addition to the existing plan to have post and pre-natal maternity services at the new hospital.
• Committing to match Coalition’s $10 million weather radar detector in Queensland.
• $27.5 million to construct a health and engineering wing at Central Queensland University’s Cairns campus.
• $10 million Reef Educational Experience Fund to protect and promote the Great Barrier Reef that includes:
  • $6 million for a “Kids for the Reef” rebate program for subsidised school excursions.
  • $1 million in support for local Reef tourism operators.
  • $3 million to Tourism Tropical North Queensland to deliver an international educational campaign in key overseas markets.

Labor’s two-pronged campaign continues to prevail, with health and cheaper electricity dominating the policies.

Coalition Campaign Trail

Finding their feet after the first two weeks, the Coalition will be looking to hone their campaign on marginal seats and reverse the Labor swing. In the second week of the campaign, Mr Dutton visited the following electorates from Friday, 4 April, to Thursday, 10 April.

McEwen VIC (ALP, 3.8%), Aston VIC (ALP, 3.6%), Werriwa NSW (ALP, 5.3%), McMahon NSW (ALP, 10.5%), Paramatta NSW (ALP, 3.7%), Adelaide SA (ALP, 11.9%), Sturt SA (LIB, 0.5%), Forrest WA (LIB, 4.2%), Perth WA (ALP, 14.4%), Lyons TAS (ALP, 0.9%), Bass TAS (LIB, 1.4%), and Solomon NT (ALP, 8.4%).

In similar fashion to the ALP, the Coalition has not strayed from its week 1 electoral targeting. Out of the twelve electorates visited by Mr Dutton, only three are held by the Coalition, and the ALP is heavily targeting all three. As the Coalition continues to target outer-suburb seats, the focus has been on the cost of living, so, let’s see what notable policies have been announced this week:

• $20 billion Regional Australia Future Fund to finance childcare centres, health facilities, roads and other infrastructure in the regions.
• Creating a domestic gas reservation for the East Coast with hopes to drive down household gas bills by 7% and industrial gas bills by 15%, according to newly released modelling estimates.
• Cap on international students. Public universities will be able to enrol no more than 115,000 international students a year. At the same time, private and non-university higher education facilities will be permitted to enrol up to 125,000.
• Immediately secure the Port of Darwin by facilitating the return of the port to an Australian Government-approved operator.

Similar to the ALP, the Coalition is focused on cost of living policies, particularly essentials like electricity and housing. However, the Coalition didn’t just announce policies this week – they also unannounced a few key ones.

This week, Mr Dutton confirmed that the Coalition was no longer pursuing its plan to scrap working from home arrangements, and will no longer proceed with cutting 41,000 public service jobs – a major policy previously central to its election platform.

Debate Season

As we approach Polling Day on 3 May, debate season is well underway, with several debates having already occurred within in the first two weeks.

Debate season kicked off on 8 April with the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader facing off. Both leaders’ debates were solid, with neither making apparent mistakes. The audience voted 44 to 35 in favour of Mr Albanese, with 21 undecided.

Since then, there have been debates between the Treasurer, the Hon Dr Jim Chalmers MP, and the Shadow Treasurer, the Hon Angus Taylor MP, as well as the Minister for Energy, the Hon Chris Bown MP, and the Shadow Minister for Energy, Mr Ted O’Brien MP. So far, neither side has pulled ahead in the debates, so stay tuned for future updates on the most compelling moments of the election campaign.

Seats to Watch

Labor-targeted seats

Labor looks to not only protect but also to increase their majority. Here are ten key seats Labor will aim to win to increase their chance of forming government or to offset any losses:

1. Menzies VIC (LIB; after redistribution, notionally ALP by 0.42%)
2. Deakin VIC (LIB, 0.02%)
3. Leichardt QLD (LNP, 3.4%)
4. Ryan QLD (GRN, 2.65%)
5. Dickson QLD (LNP, 1.7%)
6. Banks NSW (LIB, 2.6%)
7. Fowler NSW (IND, 1.8%)
8. Moore WA (LIB, 0.9%)
9. Bass TAS (LIB, 1.43%)
10. Sturt SA (LIB, 0.45%)

Coalition-targeted seats

The Coalition will be looking to target Labor’s weakening grasp over the outer suburbs in Victoria and pick up a few seats on the outskirts of Sydney. Here are our ten key seats the Coalition will need to win if they hope to form government:

1. McEwen VIC (ALP, 3.8%)
2. Chisholm VIC (ALP, 3.3%)
3. Kooyong VIC (IND, 2.2%)
4. Paterson NSW (ALP, 2.6%)
5. Gilmore NSW (ALP, 0.2%)
6. Bennelong NSW (ALP; after redistribution, notionally LIB by 0.04%)
7. Bullwinkel WA (ALP, 3.3%)
8. Tangney WA (ALP, 2.8%)
9. Lingiari NT (ALP, 1.0%)
10. Lyons TAS (ALP,9%)

If you enjoyed this week’s Election Insight, make sure to tune in next week for updated projections and polling for both parties.