What About WA?

With media focus caught up in the whirlpool of the soon-to-be-called Federal Election, take a break and join the Nexus APAC team as we dive into the upcoming 2025 Western Australia (WA) election.

‘Twas the night before the election, when all through the state, not a candidate was stirring, as they awaited their fate. The corflutes were hung on polling centres with care, in hopes that swing voters would soon be there. Western Australians were nestled all snug in their beds, while visions of greater GST share danced in their heads. And Premier Cook, in his navy suit and red tie, had just put down the mic, ready for the long night.

Changes in the voting system

One of the most significant changes heading into the 2025 WA election will pertain to Legislative Council voting. WA Parliament is comprised of a 59-member Legislative Assembly (Lower House), and a 37-member Legislative Council (Upper House).

This state election marks the first time WA’s Legislative Council will be selected from one single mass district, eliminating the former six-district system.

The six-district system divided the WA Legislative Council into six regions: Agricultural, East Metropolitan, Mining and Pastoral, North Metropolitan, South Metropolitan, and Southwest. 6 MPs represented each region.

This system was criticised and ultimately scrapped in 2021 by the former McGowan Labor Government due to its disproportionate nature. Metropolitan regions had 1/6 the voting power of some regional districts such as Mining and Pastoral. As such, it was replaced with one statewide electorate for the entire Upper House

Instead of voting for a representative from their district, all WA voters will choose 37 candidates to represent the entire state.

Despite the apparent solution to disproportionate representation, those in the regions have heavily criticised this reform. The old six-district system guaranteed 18 regional-based MPs. Some argue that, under the new system, there is no incentive to be a regionally-based MP. Some political commentators believe this will see a slow decline in regional representation as more MPs will align themselves with the metropolitan area, where over 70% of WA’s population lives.

Under the six-district system, candidates needed an average of 16% of the votes to be elected to the Legislative Council. Under the new, one-electorate system, candidates only need approximately 2.5% of the vote. Many believe this will be a more accurate reflection of the democratic process. It has opened the door for ‘teal’ and independents to flood the Legislative Council, making it harder for either of the major parties to gain a majority.

Western Australia Labor Party

The Cook WA Labor Government are coming off the largest party majority in WA history, with an astonishing 53-seat majority in the Legislative Assembly and a 21-seat majority in the Legislative Council. Since then, Labor’s popularity has slipped. Recent polling data has indicated a 14% swing to the Liberals since 2021. This still gives Labor a 56-44 lead over the WA Liberal Party and would see them easily maintain a majority in the Legislative Assembly. However, the Liberal Party will look to chip away at the sea of red by picking up once-traditional Liberal seats in Perth’s outer-suburbs.

The Cook WA Labor Government have run their campaign with cost-of-living and healthcare at the forefront. Premier Cook has delivered promises of a Build to Rent fund which aims to get rental projects off the ground by offering land tax concessions to developers, thereby boosting social housing by 1,000 homes a year. He has also promised $250 million in upgrades for emergency care. This includes the Midland Health Campus Emergency Department and increasing the WA Virtual Emergency Department program.

However, not all of Labor’s promises have been well received by the public. Premier Cook’s announcement of a $217 million package for a new entertainment precinct at Burswood Park, if re-elected, has received backlash. Victoria Park Mayor Karen Vernon revealed that neither the council nor residents had been consulted before the announcement and that the council has significant concerns about noise, odour, and light pollution.

There have since been protests outside the WA Government building with constituents of Victoria Park saying, “We did vote Labor last time … most of Perth did, but never again, not after this. They’ve completely lost our trust.” There have also been reports that the Member for Victoria Park has “been absolutely bombarded by letters” from the community.

Despite this hiccup at the finish line, political commentators are predicting a Labor majority in the Legislative Assembly and a likely minority in the Legislative Council.

National Party of Western Australia

As the dust settled following the 2021 statewide red wave, the Nationals found themselves as the official Opposition, winning the second-most seats (4) in the Legislative Assembly. It was the first time in over 80 years that the WA Nationals held Opposition in their own right. However, this was short-lived, as they entered an official coalition with the Liberal Party in April 2021.

WA Opposition Leader and Leader of the WA Nationals Shane Love has campaigned on land development in the regions, promising $1 billion to connect suitable landholdings to essential utilities. He has also promised another $1 billion to build 1,000 new homes for government workers in regional and remote areas. These promises have come at a time where urban and rural divides are evident across the state on the back of the changes to the Legislative Council voting system. The Nationals will be looking to pick up regional seats such as Blackwood after statewide swings towards Labor in the 2021 election.

Western Australian Liberal Party

Following the 2021 election, the Leader of WA Liberal Party Libby Mettam was left to revitalise the party. Facing an all-time low after the previous election and internal fracturing, she has recouped unity within the WA Liberals with an infamous statement, telling her colleagues to “put up or shut up.” Following this, the Liberal Party announced a crime crackdown in Forrestfield, funding for the bushfire brigade in Parkerville, a recreation centre upgrade in Darling Range, and a freeway noise wall in Bateman. Alongside the Labor Party, the Liberal Party has recognised the housing crisis, promising $500 million for sewerage, roads, and water so that over 100,000 new homes can be built. They have also pledged to cut stamp duty for first-time home buyers to ease pressure caused by rising housing market costs.

However, the Liberal Party’s campaigning efforts have been clouded by the forced resignation of the candidate for Kimberely, Mr David Spackman. Two weeks ago, a series of tweets surfaced showing Mr Spackman referring to break-ins as a “Welcome to Country.” In response, Liberal Leader Mettam was swift in condemnation, stating, “I will not tolerate this behaviour and have asked the state director to immediately obtain Mr Spackman’s resignation as a candidate for the WA Liberal Party.” A fast, unforgiving response could be interpreted as a strong leader willing to unify the WA Liberal Party under mutual values.

Key Takeaways

As the campaigns draw to a close, the election is already underway, with 14% of the votes already cast as of last Saturday. A rarity in political forecasting, there seems to be a consensus on the election winner on 8 March, with the Cook WA Labor Government looking well-positioned to secure a second term. However, this election will set the tone for the next decade. If the Liberals, under the will of Leader Mettam, can regain seats in suburban Perth and regional WA, their election hopes – at both a state and federal level – may be back on track. However, if the WA Labor Party suffers minimal losses, WA may be bleeding red for some time to come.