Queensland goes to the ballot box

With everything that has been going on in the last few months, including the Northern Territory general election, the New South Wales local elections, and, of course, the AFL and NRL final series, you may be forgiven for falling behind in all things Queensland State Election. This edition of Nexus APAC Insights will provide you with everything you need to know before Queenslanders head to the ballot box on 26 October.

How is the election shaping up?

The Labor Government, led by Premier Steven Miles, following former Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s retirement in December 2023, will seek to win a fourth consecutive term against the Liberal National Party (LNP), which is led by David Crisafulli. Other parties, such as Katter’s Australia Party, the Queensland Greens and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party, along with independents, will also contest seats at the election.

For Premier Steven Miles and Labor, polls are indicating a possible electoral defeat. On 16 March 2024, two by-elections were held in Inala and Ipswich West. Despite being held by safe margins of 28.2% and 14.3%, respectively, a significant swing against Labor was recorded in both seats. In Inala, the margin was cut by more than 20%.

Premier Steven Miles

LNP Leader David Crisafulli

It’s all in the numbers

According to polls, David Crisafulli could return the LNP to a majority government for the first time in a decade. A poll conducted by Newspoll found that the LNP jumped 10 points clear of Labor. If the predicted 8.2% swing against the Labor Government occurs across the state on election day, it would deliver the LNP a significant majority of 55 seats. The poll also suggests that Labor could lose 20 seats, including five held by current ministers. This would reduce Labor to 31 seats.

Labor introduced measures such as $1,000 energy rebates, a 20% cut to car registration fees and 50c public transport fares, in an effort to lift support in the polls. However, with increased spending failing to boost support, Labor has turned its attention to reducing losses in greater Brisbane, which remains its stronghold. In Brisbane, Labor currently holds 34 of the 42 seats.

Key issues and policies

Along with cost of living and housing, youth crime is one of the most significant issues at this election. While youth crime in Queensland has slightly decreased over the last five years, serious offences have increased.

In response, the Government proposed a $1.28 billion Community Safety Plan to be implemented over five years. This money will be directed toward support for victims, hiring 900 more police personnel, and funding additional resources such as tasers and helicopters. The Government plans to construct youth detention centres in Cairns and Woodford.

The LNP has indicated it would introduce legislation by December 2024 that will allow courts to sentence children as adults for serious crimes such as murder. The LNP also intends to introduce a 12-month plan for children leaving youth detention and has committed $40 million to build two youth justice schools.

Youth crime has been a salient issue in this election, and could be a key issue for voters as they cast their ballot.

The month to come

Recently, David Crisafulli has come under pressure for failing to outline the LNP’s policy goals. These include a plan to achieve emission reduction targets, build more homes, and address the state’s rising debt (which is set to reach $172 billion by 2028).

Despite Labor’s position in the polls, Premier Miles remains optimistic:

“I think we can win, and I’m fighting every single day to win. I know David Crisafulli thinks this one will be easy. They’re taking this election for granted, and I think that’s a pretty dangerous thing to do.”

Stay tuned on the Nexus APAC Insights page for more political updates soon.