POLLING REMAINS A HOT TOPIC AT THE START OF 2018

Polling released over the break shows similar trends emerging in 2018. Both federal polling released by Newspoll (under the new ownership of UK firm, YouGov) and state polling by Essential show swings to Labor at both levels of government.

The quarterly Newspoll released just after Christmas shows support for the Turnbull Government is still lower than the 2016 election. The poll indicated that the negative sentiment that had previously been confined to regional areas appears to have moved into more metropolitan areas.

A Guardian Essential poll released data on the 9th January on satisfaction levels for state governments last week.

According to the Guardian Essential poll, the NSW Labor party has pulled ahead for the first time since the 2015 ‘Poles and Wires’ election by 51/49. The summer of cricket has not been able to dampen attacks on the Berejiklian Government’s $2 billion decision to knock down and rebuild two sports stadiums; money that some voters suggested would be better invested into the train network, which had challenges this week.

Polls also indicate that state Labor Governments in both Western Australia and Queensland are enjoying post-election bumps, holding stable 2PP (two party preferred) leads. The WA Labor Government has a comfortable 57/43 margin. The Queensland Palaszczuk Government is up 52/48.

Both major parties in South Australia have been increasing their attacks on former federal Senator Nick Xenophon, with pundits predicting the former Senator has a good chance of winning the Liberal-held seat of Hartley at the 17 March election. Preference flows from Mr Xenophon’s new SA-Best party will be crucial to deciding who forms the next SA state government.

Essential have each party’s primary vote as follows:

Labor at 34%

Liberal on 31%

SA-Best on 22%

Mr Xenophon has set himself a target of running candidates in 20 state seats, but it is not clear how many?—?other than Hartley?—?can be won. Expect the former Senator, an effective negotiator, to be diligently working through preference deals over the coming weeks.