COP29: Slow and Steady… Loses the Race?

Last month, the 29^th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, also known as COP29, was held in Baku, Azerbaijan.

‘Disappointment’ seems to be the resounding consensus on COP29’s outcomes.

Negotiation breakdown led to key issues being kicked down the road, with further discussion delayed until next year’s COP30 in Belém, Brazil. COP29’s failures have led to some calling for reform of the COP process. Some even argue that it should be scrapped altogether.

In this edition of Nexus APAC Insights, we will address what happened at COP29, why it disappointed so many, and where to next.

What is COP?

The Conference of Parties (COP) is a series of formal meetings where governments assess global efforts to advance the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), a treaty signed in 1992 that sets out the basic obligations of parties to combat climate change. The aim is to review the state of implementation of the convention and to propose, evaluate and adopt other instruments to support its implementation.

These climate summits bring together almost two hundred countries seeking to negotiate joint actions and include a growing number of participants from civil society (including the private sector, academia, NGOs, and multilateral organisations).

Key Outcomes from COP29 (and lack thereof)

Climate Finance Goal:

Finance was the primary issue at COP29. Representatives agreed on a new financial goal to help countries protect people and economies from climate disasters, though negotiations exceeded the deadline by 33 hours.

The agreed target, titled the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) refers to finance to developing countries to address climate-related losses and meet energy transition goals. The previous goal of USD 100 billion annually was tripled to USD 300 billion annually by 2035.

While this is triple the original target, it is significantly below the estimated need for developing countries. The Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance puts developing countries’ need for external climate finance at around $1 trillion a year by 2030 and $1.3 trillion by 2035.

This resulted in walkouts by the Alliance of Small Island States (AOISIS) and another bloc called the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) when talks ran over by 19 hours. AOSIS represents 39 countries and territories such as Samoa, Barbados and Trinidad that are particularly vulnerable to climate change and have few resources to cope with the impacts.

Without a definitive agreement, all parties agreed to launch a ‘Baku to Belém Roadmap’ to work out how to scale up climate finance and ‘implement nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans, including through grants, concessional and non-debt-creating instruments, and measures to create fiscal space.’

Progressing the Global Stocktake:

At COP28, the first Global Stocktake (GST) assessed the collective progress of the world’s nations against the Paris Agreement. The most notable outcome from COP28 was the call for countries to transition away from fossil fuels.

The Global Stocktake is intended to inform the next round of national climate action plans under the Paris Agreement, called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are due in early 2025 ahead of COP30.

While COP29 was supposed to discuss next steps to advance the progress made at COP28, discussion stalled. Some countries argued that COP29 should focus solely on scaling up finance, but others maintained that all GST outcomes should be addressed, particularly the transition away from fossil fuels.

Consensus on the transition plan was not reached during COP29 and was ultimately pushed to future sessions. On behalf of a negotiating faction of petrostates, Saudi representative Albara Tawfiq told delegates, ‘The Arab Group will not accept any text that targets specific sectors, including fossil fuels.’

Nationally Determined Contributions:

New and updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for each country will be due in early 2025, and will set their emissions-reduction targets for 2035. The UAE, UK and Brazil unveiled their new NDCs at COP29.

A coalition of both developed and developing countries (including Canada, Chile, the EU, Mexico, Norway, Panama, Switzerland and the UK) pledged at COP29 to submit NDCs featuring topline, economy-wide targets that chart a steep path to their own net-zero targets.

Carbon Markets:

At COP29, important agreements were made to operationalise some aspects of the Paris Agreement’s Article 6 on carbon markets, enhancing avenues for the private sector to participate in climate progress.

On the first day of COP29, countries agreed to standards for a centralised carbon market. Developing countries will benefit from new finance flows, and the least developed countries will receive the capacity-building support they need to enter the market.

The Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) will also include mandatory checks for projects against environmental and human rights protections. Under this mechanism, Indigenous Peoples will also have to give explicit, informed consent for these projects. In addition, there is an appeal/complaint process for affected parties.

Climate Adaptation:

The Paris Agreement established a Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), a goal to enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience, and reduce vulnerability to climate change. While progress was made on the GGA at COP28, negotiations were derailed this year, and a decision on the goal was delayed until COP30.

National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) allow counties to develop plans for adapting to climate change impacts. New updates on NAPs were not included in the COP29 final decision, and will be scheduled for further negotiation later in 2025.

Germany pledged $63 million to the Adaptation Fund at COP29. While the new funds will bring the current amount up to $124 million, the Adaptation Fund has consistently struggled to meet its annual target of $300 million.

Loss and Damage:

Countries reviewed the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WIM). The purpose of WIM is to address loss and damage associated with impacts of climate change, including extreme events and slow onset events, particularly in vulnerable developing countries. Once again, countries could not agree on key issues in WIM’s review during COP29 and further discussion and decisions were pushed back into 2025.

Where to next?

On the outcomes at Baku, Executive Secretary of the UNFCC Mr Simon Stiell stated, ‘No country got everything they wanted, and we leave Baku with a mountain of work to do.’

The LDCs negotiating bloc stated, ‘Once again, the countries most responsible for the climate crisis have failed us.’

Critics of global climate diplomacy lambast the lack of tangible outcomes achieved through events like COP. However there are exceptions. Perhaps the most famous being COP21 held in France in 2015, where the Paris Agreement was adopted. This pact set specific targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit rising temperatures and the address the impacts of climate change.

According to Professor Howard Bamsey, a renowned Australian climate negotiator, the French diplomatic preparation in the leadup to COP21 was crucial to its success, as was cooperation between the U.S. and China in the leadup to the Conference.

Conversely, Azerbaijan’s presidency has been roundly condemned by many participants for its lack of diplomatic experience and for allowing certain countries to dominate negotiations.

There is a possibility that COP30 could reinstate trust in climate diplomacy, noting Brazil’s progressive government has made it clear that it wants to seek an ambitious deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

However, the meeting will be impacted by the incoming U.S. administration under President Donald Trump, who withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement during his first term. Additionally, there is a weaker prospect of collaboration between the U.S. and China this time around.

Finally, the bid by Australia and Pacific Island nations to host COP31 in 2026 is in limbo, with the decision being deferred until June 2025. If chosen to host, it would be the largest diplomatic summit Australia has ever held, with satellite events in Pacific Island nations. Australia’s Minister for Climate Change and Energy would be the COP31 President.

With the presidency comes the spotlight – Azerbaijan was widely criticised for hosting COP29 given its heavy dependence on fossil fuels. Should Australia win its bid, it will need to critically evaluate its climate policy over the next two years, as one of the world’s largest exporters of fossil fuels.

Stay tuned on the Nexus APAC Insights page for more political updates.

Photo credit: President.az