The Year of the Ballot Box - a Geopolitical Timeline

2024 is the biggest global election year in history, with citizens in more than 60 countries heading to the polls – representing the world’s largest eligible voting population in a single year.

The geopolitical climate as we know it will likely be unrecognisable by December. As noted at the World Economic Forum in January 2024, how fiscal stimulus is handled around the globe could shift drastically. These election outcomes will represent a critical juncture for the prominence and perseverance of democratic institutions.

Anticipating an onslaught of forthcoming global election coverage, Nexus APAC Researcher Adelaide Hayes, supported by Analyst Jessica Brownette, has developed a ‘one-stop shop’ chronological timeline. The table below covers everything you need to know about the Year of the Ballot Box, excluding local and regional elections.

Country / Union	Approximate Date (2024)	Nature of Election	Additional Context
Bangladesh	7 January	General election to elect members of the Jatiya Sangsad.	The Awami League, led by incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, won the election for the fourth consecutive time. Less than 40% of eligible voters participated, according to the Bangladesh Election Commission (EC). The impartiality of the EC has been called into question by international critics.
Bhutan	9 January	Second round of the general elections to elect members of the National Assembly of Bhutan.	The centre-left People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won 30 of 47 seats and has formed the new government led by former Prime Minister Dr Tshering Tobgay. This was the country’s fourth general election since 2008 when it transformed from a traditional monarchy to a parliamentary government.
Taiwan	13 January	Concurrent elections to elect the Legislative Yuan and President.	Voters elected Lai Ching-te of the centre-left Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as Taiwan’s next president. In the Yuan, no political party gained an outright majority. The centre-right Kuomintang (KMT) won 52 seats and the DPP won 51. The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) gained 8 seats, rendering the third force a critical minority.
Comoros	14 January	Presidential election.	President of Comoros and Chairperson of the African Union Azali Assoumani, who first came to power in a 1999 coup, has been re-elected for a fourth term. The outcome has sparked violent protests in Moroni, the Comorian capital. Just 16% of people voted in the Presidential election.
Tuvalu	26 January	General election to elect members to its 16-member Parliament.	There are no political parties in Tuvalu, so all candidates run as Independents. Incumbent Prime Minister Kausea Natano signed the Falepili Union treaty with Australia in November 2023.
Finland	28 January	Presidential Election.	Independent Incumbent President Sauli Niinistö is term-limited and cannot run for re-election, having served the maximum two terms, ensuring the President elected will be Finland’s thirteenth. The leading contenders are former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb from the ruling right-wing National Coalition Party (Kokoomus) and Member for Helsinki, Pekka Havisto from the Green League (Vihreät).
El Salvador	4 February	General elections to elect the President, Vice-President and Legislative Assembly.	Incumbent President Nayib Bukele of the Nuevas Ideas (NI) Party is heavily anticipated to win re-election after the Supreme Court of Justice overturned constitutional limitations on serving consecutive terms. President Bukele’s government has been criticised as authoritarian, yet a majority of Salvadorans remain supportive of his anti-gang, punitive populist campaign.
Azerbaijan	7 February	Presidential election. Third ‘snap’ election in Azerbaijan’s history.	President Ilham Aliyev of the centre-right New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) is expected to extend his 20 years in power. The two main opposition parties, Musavat and Popular Front, announced that they would not put forward candidates for the election. They denounced the calling of a snap election as ‘undemocratic’.
Pakistan	8 February	General elections to all five assemblies. Following these, an indirect election is expected in March to elect the President.	Popular former Premier Imran Khan of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Party has been in jail since August 2023, with his Party facing what is considered a crackdown by the nation’s powerful military. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML(N)), who was ousted in 2017 following corruption charges, is considered the front-runner to win the upcoming general election.
Indonesia	14 February	General Elections to elect the President, Vice President, People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR) which consists of the House of Representatives (DPR) and the Senate (DPD).	More than 200 million Indonesian citizens are registered to vote in the world’s largest single-day election. Popular President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has reached his term limit. Widodo’s progressivism and pluralism decisively defeated former general Prawobo Subianto’s strongman style in 2014, and his devout Islamist approach in 2019. In the 2024 race, Subianto is running again, albeit with a different strategy. Subianto has garnered increasing popularity, particularly with Indonesian youth, by refashioning his image. His primary contender is the progressive former Governor of Central Java, Mr Ganjar Pranowo. Whilst Pranowo is the candidate for President Widodo’s party, Widodo has been accused of tacitly supporting Subianto (whose running mate is Widodo’s eldest son).
Belarus	25 February	Parliamentary election to elect members of the House of Representatives.	Belarus is preparing for its first elections since 2020 when protests broke out over the election result and President Alexander Lukashenka’s security forces conducted a brutal crackdown on Belarusian society. Per a new section of the constitution added last year, the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly will become an official organ with immense powers.
Cambodia	25 February	Senate election.	This will be the 5^th Senate election in Cambodian history. The Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) currently controls 58 of 62 seats in the Senate. Whilst rooted in communist and Marxist-Leninist ideologies, the CPP took on a more reformist outlook in the 1980s. The main opposition, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), was banned before the 2018 election.
Senegal	25 February	Presidential election.	Since Senegal gained independence from France in 1960, it has been governed by only four Presidents. This election will be the first time a Senegalese incumbent President organises an election they are not running in, following President Macky Sall’s statement of intent to step down. Senegal is considered somewhat of an outlier to the region’s anti-democratic trends.
Iran	1 March	Legislative election for the Islamic Consultative Assembly (ICA) and the Council of Experts, which is empowered to appoint the Supreme Leader.	The upcoming Iranian elections are the first since the large-scale protests in 2022 following Mahsa Amini’s death in police custody, which was considered the largest Iranian revolt since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The ICA, described as a ‘rubber stamp’ Parliament for the unelected Supreme Leader of Iran, is currently dominated by the Principlists. As it stands, the Principlists’ ultra-conservative faction controls both the Executive and the Parliament.
Portugal	10 March	Legislative election to elect members to the Assembly of the Republic.	Former Prime Minister António Costa resigned in November 2023 after Portugal’s Attorney-General confirmed he was being investigated for corruption. The social-democratic centre-left Socialist Party (PS) will aim to repeat its defeat of the centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD). The PSD may seek to form a coalition with the ultranationalist Chega Party.
Russia	15 March	Presidential and by-election to the State Duma (Lower House).	Residents of some regions of Ukraine annexed by Russia will take part in the first election since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Incumbent and Independent President Vladimir Putin is eligible to seek re-election due to constitutional amendments in 2020. His most prominent political rival, Mr Alexei Navalny, is in solitary confinement at the IK-6 penal colony for various offences including ‘funding extremism’.
Slovakia	23 March	Presidential election.	The Presidential election follows shortly after Prime Minister Robert Fico’s victory in September 2023. The President holds little power. Fico, who is publicly anti-western, formed a government coalition with former Prime Minister and Speaker of the National Council Peter Pellegrini, who has announced his candidacy.
Togo	31 March	General election to elect members of the National Assembly.	Togo’s head of state, President Faure Gnassingbe has been in power since 2005 after his father’s death. General Eyadema Gnassingbe ruled the country for 38 years before his son assumed office. The Union for the Republic (UNIR) is anticipated to continue to govern, though the validity of the results remains disputed.
South Korea	10 April	Legislative election to elect members to the National Assembly.	The centrist-liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) has a majority in Parliament. Growing internal tension plagues the DPK, with members accusing leader Lee Jae-myung of abuse of power. Former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon recently announced his plan to launch a new political party, aiming to challenge the domination of the two leading parties in parliament, the conservative People Power Party (PPP) and the DPK.
Solomon Islands	30 April	General election to elect members to its National Parliament.	The general election was due to occur in May 2023; however, it was postponed by Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, who cited the financial implications of the Pacific Games as a reason to delay. The decision to delay was met with public disapproval. The Australian Government will contribute funds to assist the Solomon Islands in holding the election, as well as an Australian police presence to provide security.
India	Between April and May	General election to elect members of the Lok Sabha, the Lower House of India’s bicameral Parliament.	The *Hindutva* (Hindu nationalist) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won three major state elections in December 2023. Prime Minister Modi, who is seeking a third term in power for the BJP, stated, “This hat-trick has guaranteed the 2024 victory.” The main opposition, the Indian National Congress, won one state election in December. Political analysts suggest that the question is not whether the BJP will win the election in the world’s largest democracy, but to what extent.
Panama	5 May	General election to elect a President and members of the National Assembly.	As of January 2024, former President Ricardo Martinelli leads a crowded field of candidates despite being convicted of money laundering. A controversial Canadian mining contract has emerged as a key issue in the campaign, sparking widespread protests throughout Panama.
North Macedonia	8 May	Presidential and Parliamentary elections.	As of January 2024, the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) currently leads the polls ahead of their opposition, the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM).
Lithuania	12 May	Presidential election (followed by Parliamentary election before 6 October)	Independent incumbent President Gitanas Naus?da is expected to win re-election. President Naus?da was previously the director of monetary policy at the Bank of Lithuania from 1996 to 2000. He has described himself as a ‘compassionate conservative’.
Dominican Republic	19 May	General election to elect a President, Vice President, Senators and Deputies.	Many polls suggest that wealthy businessman and incumbent President Luis Abinader of the centrist Partido Revolucionario Moderno (PRM), could win outright in the first ballot. His hardline stance on Haitian migrants has stoked nationalist sentiments, though the closure of the neighbouring border is depriving the Dominican Republic of significant export revenue.
United Kingdom	There is speculation that the election could be held in May, concurrently with local elections.	General election to elect members to the House of Commons.	Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has confirmed that the next United Kingdom general election will occur sometime in 2024. The election may occur in November, given that the Conservative Party significantly trails the Labour Party in polls (as of January 2024). Nonetheless, Sir Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party, reportedly told his MPs to be prepared for a Spring election. If the date is set for November, it will coincide with the U.S. Presidential election for the first time since 1964.
Iceland	1 June	Presidential election.	President Gudni Johannesson, who was re-elected in 2020 with 92% of the vote, has declared that he will not seek another re-election. Candidates will be finalised by 26 April 2024.
Mexico	2 June	General election.	The leftist National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) presidential candidate is Ms Claudia Sheinbaum, former Head of Government of Mexico City. She leads the polls over businesswoman-turned-politician Ms Xóchitl Gálvez, who leads the three-party alliance Broad Front for Mexico. If elected, either candidate will be the first woman to serve as President of Mexico.
European Union	6 – 9 June	First European Parliament election following Brexit.	Nearly 450 million citizens in 27 member states will be called upon to elect the Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). The European People’s Party (EPP), likely led by current President Ursula von der Leyen, will face the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) led by Luxembourg’s relatively unknown EU Commissioner for jobs and social rights, Nicolas Schmit. There is speculation that a renewed far-right surge may occur throughout Europe and could shape this election.
Belgium	9 June	Federal election to elect members to the Chamber of Representatives.	Belgium will face the challenge of organising its national elections at the same time as EU elections – on top of the fact that Belgium took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union from Spain earlier this year. The right-wing populist Vlaams Belang currently leads the polls in Flanders (as of January 2024) and seeks Flemish sovereignty.
Mauritania	22 June	Presidential election.	President Mohamed Ould Cheikh Ghazouani is contesting for a second and final five-year term in Mauritania’s presidential elections, widely popular for his success against Jihadism in his former role as Army Chief. Mauritanian history’s first peaceful power transfer occurred just five years ago.
Mongolia	28 June	Parliamentary election to elect members to the State Great Khural.	The next Mongolian election will be the first since the Constitutional amendment in May 2023, reconfiguring Mongolia’s legislature, and electoral system. The amendment increased the number of Parliamentary seats from 76 to 126, with 48 chosen by proportional representation. The Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) is expected to maintain its majority.
Rwanda	15 July	General election to elect a President and members of the Chamber of Deputies.	Incumbent President Paul Kagame has announced his candidacy for a fourth term, hoping to extend his 23-year tenure as Rwanda’s leader. President Kagame was acclaimed for his role in ending the 1994 Rwandan genocide and subsequent peace in the nation. However, he is facing mounting criticism for his suppression of political opposition and media censorship.
Sri Lanka	September – October	Presidential election.	Nearly two years after the announcement of a debt default in the middle of a severe social and political crisis, the political landscape in Sri Lanka has changed drastically. The primary Presidential election contenders are the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), a political alliance led by opposition leader Mr Sajith Premadasa, and the Jathika Jana Balavegaya, the National People’s Power (NPP), led by Mr Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The former government led by the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) was apportioned responsibility for the Sri Lankan economic crisis by its Supreme Court late last year.
Moldova	Autumn 2024 (Between September and November)	Presidential election.	Former World Bank Economist and Moldovan Independent President Maia Sandu has intended to run for a second term. She has also requested preparations for a referendum on Moldova’s European orientation, as an ex-Soviet state positioned between Ukraine and Romania. The most prominent speculated opposition candidate is former President Igor Dodon of the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM).
Mozambique	9 October	General election to elect a President and the Assembly of the Republic.	Municipal elections held in October 2023 saw the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (FRELIMO) party win 64 of 65 contests, according to the Mozambican National Election Commission. Parallel vote counts by independent election observers disputed the outcome – with credible reports of ballot box stuffing, intimidation of election observers, severe discrepancies in vote registers, and tabulation irregularities. A similar result is expected this October.
Georgia	26 October	Presidential and Parliamentary elections.	On 6 February 2023, the Central Election Commission of Georgia adopted a decree introducing an electronic voter registration and voting system on most polling stations. Additionally, political parties must fulfil a gender quota of 25% on their party lists. Former Prime Minister and oligarch Mr Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of the governing Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia, recently announced his third return to politics.
Uruguay	27 October	General elections to vote for President, Vice-President, all Senate and Chamber of Representative seats.	Presidential Primary elections will be held on 30 June to nominate the Presidential candidate for every political party in the general election. Additionally, Uruguay will hold a series of referendums on constitutional reforms in October. The governing centre-right Partido Nacional will face the centre-left Frente Amplio. The Frente Amplio held the presidency for 15 years until losing to the outgoing President, Luis Lacalle Pou, in 2020.
Botswana	October	A general election will be held to elect a new National Assembly and local councils.	Ever since the nation’s first election in 1965, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has held a majority in the National Assembly. Nonetheless, October’s general election is expected to be the most competitive in the nation’s history, with increasing support for two emerging centre-left parties.
Chad	October	Presidential election.	Since Chad’s former President Idriss Déby was killed by insurgents in 2021, Chad has been led by General Mahamat Déby, the former President’s son, who also took control in a military coup. The Chadian junta has faced extensive international criticism after 300 unarmed protesters seeking a return to constitutional rule were shot by security forces in 2022.
United States of America	5 November	The President and Vice President will be elected. In addition, House of Representatives and Senate members will be contested to determine Congress membership. Thirteen state and territorial governorships and local elections will also be contested.	The 60th quadrennial U.S. Presidential election will be the most anticipated election of the year. Each of the 50 States, the District of Columbia, and territories of the United States holds either primary elections or caucuses to nominate the individual candidate representing their party for the Presidency. For the Republican Party, former President Donald Trump is running for re-election to a second, non-consecutive term. His sole competitor is former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley. For the Democratic Party, incumbent President Joseph Biden is contesting for re-election. The other declared major candidates are Mr. Dean Phillips, a House of Representatives Member for Minnesota’s 3rd District, and author Marianne Williamson. Commentators anticipate that former President Trump and President Biden will again compete for the Presidency.
Palau	12 November	General election to elect a President and the National Congress.	Palau is one of three Pacific nations with close economic and security partnerships with the United States through the Compacts of Free Association. The Palauan election will focus on the proposed permanent deployment of U.S. PATRIOT Missile Defence Batteries.
Romania	Mid-late November	Presidential and Parliamentary elections.	Romania’s ruling coalition government, which includes the leftist Social Democrats (SD) and centre-right National Liberal Party (PNL), is anticipated to fall short of an outright majority (as of January 2024). Conversely, the far-right ultra-nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), established in 2019, is experiencing augmenting popularity.
Tunisia	24 November	First Presidential election since President Kaïs Saïed’s ‘self-coup’.	Tunisia’s recent decline in democratic governance will impact the November election. According to Tunisia’s Independent High Authority for Elections (ISIE), just 11.66% of the North African nation’s 9 million eligible voters participated in elections for a second chamber of parliament in December 2023. The election was the first of its kind following constitutional reform last year. President Saïed’s opponents called for a boycott of the election, which they argued was implemented to ‘weaken and disperse’ local power.
Mauritius	30 November	General election.	The Militant Socialist Movement (MSM), led by Prime Minister Pravind Jumar Jugnauth, seeks to retain its majority. Notable competitors include the Labour Party and the Mauritian Militant Movement. Regarded as one of Africa’s most robust democracies, the island nation saw an increase in GDP per capita of 12.73% from 2021 to 2022.
Algeria	December	Presidential election.	Algerian Parliament members reportedly urged President Abdelmadjid Tebboune to run for a constitutionally permitted second term in December 2023. The Tebboune administration plans a record expenditure of USD 114 billion in 2024, burgeoned by European interest in Algeria’s energy sector. Algeria’s two-year term as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), which began in January 2024, has rendered foreign policy a top political priority.
Ghana	7 December	General election to elect the President and Members of Parliament.	Ghana’s worst economic turmoil in years will set the stage ahead of the ballot. The Presidential contest will see the centre-right New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) Vice-President Mahumudu Bawumia seek to establish a third consecutive term of executive control for his party, challenged by the centre-left National Democratic Congress (NDC) and Mr John Mahama.
Croatia	December	Presidential election (following parliamentary elections in September to elect members to the Sabor).	The Croatian press has dubbed 2024 the *super izborna godina, or ‘super election year’. The European Parliamentary, Sabor, and Presidential elections will see Croatians heading to the polls thrice in 7 months. The Croatian Parliament (the Sabor) is currently governed by a right-wing coalition led by the Croatian Democratic Union* (HDZ), whilst the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SDP) incumbent President Zoran Milanovi? holds the Presidency.
South Sudan	December	The first election since 2010 was postponed.	A general election was scheduled for 2015, but the effects of the South Sudanese Civil War resulted in its postponement. In August 2022, the transitional government extended its term to February 2025. Head of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), Mr Nicholas Haysom, told ambassadors at the UNSC that “with the necessary political will, a sense of urgency and compromise, the South Sudanese could indeed establish the conditions for elections in December 2024.”
Namibia	2024	Presidential election.	The Office of Namibian President Hage Geingob revealed in January 2024 that he will start treatment for cancer. He will continue to carry out Presidential duties until the elections. Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah has been named the next Presidential candidate for the South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO). She stands to become Namibia’s fourth President and first female President.
South Africa	2024	A general election is held to elect a new National Assembly and provincial legislature in each province.	Since the first post-Apartheid election in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has held a majority of seats in the South African National Assembly. Incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa has not yet set the election date. Issues that shape the election include Load shedding (controversial rolling blackouts conducted by Eskom, the government-owned national power utility), the question of Cape Independence, and crime rates.
Venezuela	2024	Presidential election.	Democratic backsliding has occurred in Venezuela since the late 1990s, driven by the rise of *Chavismo* – a populist political ideology espoused by former President Hugo Chávez and incumbent President Nicolás Maduro. In June 2023, the leading candidate for the opposition and former Deputy to the National Assembly, Ms María Corina Machado, was barred from running for President by the Venezuelan Government for alleged corruption. A free-market advocate, Ms Machado has chosen to stay in the race.

As for the ballot boxes a little closer to home, the Australian Federal Election window opens on 3 August 2024 and will stay open until mid-May 2025. If you would like to receive a comprehensive analysis of Australia’s upcoming 2024/25 election, please reach out to the Nexus APAC team and stay tuned for more insights.

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